New data from IWSR Drinks Market Analysis predicts global beverage alcohol market growth will slow to 1 per cent per annum 2022 - 2027, while value is forecast to grow 2 per cent year on year.
A challenging political and economic landscape will make growth for the beverage market difficult, although it will still deliver over $US 21.6 billion to the global economy by the end of this year.
Mark Meek, CEO at IWSR Drinks Market Analysis, said the subdued growth is a response to the rising cost of living seen worldwide.
“The key trends that have underpinned the industry, such as premiumisation, will evolve as consumers respond to the increased cost of living crisis. The industry will, however, still deliver pockets of significant value growth.
“The pandemic also accelerated the rise of trends such as the at-home occasion and moderation; these behaviours are now here to stay,” he said.
The IWSR expects volume growth to shift away from the US and China as India, Mexico and Brazil take over as key volume growth markets over the next five years. In 2022 India and Mexico alone accounted for half of all global volume growth.
The US and China will remain significant value drivers despite expected volume declines to 2027. Between 2022 and 2027, the US total beverage alcohol market will grow by US$ 12 billion and China’s by US$ 41.7 billion.
IWSR notes that twin-tracked premiumisation is an ongoing trend as consumer behaviours continue to shift. “In most mature markets, premiumisation looks to be embedded into consumer purchasing behaviours, and will continue to add value in most price tiers, albeit at slower growth rates,” said Meek. “In developing markets, consumers are continuing to trade up as incomes rise.”
Premium segments in the global travel retail channel will continue to regain market share as the return of Chinese travellers will provide a significant boost, especially for more premium-priced products.
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