Ivan Colhoun, Chief Economist, Markets for National Australia Bank (NAB) addressed 127 attendees from the drinks industry on wednesday morning at the drinks association's May Network Breakfast.

Held at Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG), Ivan discussed the direct impact of the budget to industry as well as NAB's forecasts for the economy.

Ivan said the key changes for the drinks industry will be the increased tax on cigarettes, the Government's decision not to change the existing backpacker tax, the WET rebate changes and $50m in funding to the Australian Grape and Wine Authority.


Ivan said that a packet of cigarettes is going to cost $40 in four years time and could impact the consumption of alcohol, with both often going hand in hand. The Government has decided to defer the introduction of the backpacker tax until January 2017.

Ivan said the $50m funding towards wine tourism and exports will be beneficial to Australia's relationship with China, which is currently our biggest alcohol export market in East Asia, led by wine. Additionally over 1 million visitors from China are now visiting Australia each year.

"A number of wine companies have remarked about how much Chinese visitors spend at cellar door and NAB put out a report in to our integration with Asia and China has been a very, very big importer of wine," he said.

"So I think the extra funding will be helpful going forward there."

As the economy improves, Ivan said the Government will want to pull spending back to ensure there are reserves incase of a recession. According to Ivan, industry's will find there will it hard to get funding from the Government over the next few years as a result.

"I think the economy is doing okay overall - Tasmania and NSW are very strong - but it's not doing okay everywhere. WA is troubling and other areas that are directly related to the resources and mining industry are quite weak," Ivan said.

However investment from the Government into tourism in WA is expected to help local businesses.

NAB's forecasts are largely in-line with the Budgets with GDP expected to stay around 2.5 per cent annual change and unemployment around 5.5 per cent. Ivan said that NAB expects the Australian dollar to stay around 70c in twelve months time.

Image: Ivan Colhoun at Sydney Cricket Ground for the drinks association's May Network Breakfast

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